Tehran: Soaring summer temperatures in Iran and widespread blackouts have pushed the government to shut down public offices in at least 12 provinces and warn of a possible nationwide week-long closure to conserve energy, according to Iran Open Data. These unprecedented measures come amid Iran's deepening water and energy crisis.

According to Global Voices, warnings about drought have echoed for years from various regions in Iran, yet chronic mismanagement has prevented any real solutions. Experts warn that if consumption is not reduced, Tehran could face a scenario akin to the prolonged water cutoffs experienced by the city of Hamedan in 2022. Beyond the drought itself, much of the crisis stems from poor consumption patterns and a lack of ecological infrastructure. A member of Tehran's city council has noted that the capital's infrastructure cannot handle population growth and that comparisons to other megacities are misleading. He emphasizes the importance of consumption reform, greywater recycling, and halting unrestrained urban development.

The head of the council's Health Commission has stated that, although the municipality has allocated significant funds to water transfer projects from the Taleghan and Lar dams, these efforts are time-consuming and insufficient on their own. Jahangir Parhamat, a natural resources expert, has highlighted the severity of the crisis, noting that Iran is experiencing a drought cycle with a return period that could exceed a century. Statistical analyses show a consistent decline in rainfall, and the past winter saw alarmingly little snow, meaning the mountains were unable to store water to release during the hot season.

Assessments indicate that 2025 marks the beginning of a difficult era for Iran's water and energy sectors. Average precipitation during the current hydrological year was just 101 mm, 37 percent below the long-term average. In Tehran, it has dropped 46 percent. Inflow to national reservoirs has decreased to 9.5 billion cubic meters, 3.5 billion less than last year. Key dams like Karaj and Lar have lost much of their storage capacity. Excessive withdrawal from underground aquifers has worsened the crisis of land subsidence, with the ground sinking by up to 30 cm per year in some urban areas. The Ministry of Energy states that groundwater withdrawal should not exceed 48 billion cubic meters per year, yet current rates exceed 54 billion.

Combined with reduced rainfall and snowmelt, weakened rivers, and management failures, evaporation and over-extraction are intensifying the crisis. The spokesperson for the water industry has warned that rationing might be inevitable in summer 2025. However, rationing itself brings additional problems: fluctuating pressure, sediment intrusion into household networks, and psychological stress. Tehran consumes five times the national average of drinking water, and with a population nearing 20 million, basic conservation campaigns and plumbing upgrades are insufficient to meet the scale of the crisis.

Since the late Pahlavi era, a project known as Iranrud has proposed connecting the Sea of Oman to the Caspian Sea to address water shortages. However, decades later, neither Iranrud nor smaller projects have materialized. Considering that over 95 percent of Iran's water use is in agriculture, focusing solely on urban drinking water is futile unless agriculture and industry are comprehensively restructured. Water must be redefined as a national security asset.

In the short term, no immediate solution exists to resolve Tehran's crisis as long as the intertwined crises of water, energy, and electricity persist. Given Iran's economic struggles, international sanctions, and domestic instability, launching mega-projects like Iranrud or Caspian transfers seems highly improbable. If current policies continue, Tehran may soon become a city governed by strict water rationing, a catastrophe for a metropolis of its size.

With subsidence increasing up to 20 cm in many areas, visible effects on buildings are now apparent. Tehran's forbidden plains host over 100,000 wells that continue to extract groundwater, deepening the crisis. As the situation worsens, affluent groups are retreating to the cooler, water-rich northern suburbs, while environmental devastation accelerates under the pressure of unchecked housing development and profiteering. Migration to Tehran continues, and with the concentration of military, industrial, and governmental facilities, the city's water trunk grows more unsustainable. At this point, there may be no choice but to revive proposals from the monarchy era for relocating the capital.