Muscat: Climate change is altering the conditions of near-Earth space in ways that could greatly reduce the number of satellites able to safely function in low Earth orbit by the end of the century, according to a new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

According to Oman News Agency, the research published in Nature Sustainability reveals that greenhouse gas emissions are causing the upper atmosphere, particularly the thermosphere-where the International Space Station (ISS) and most satellites operate-to contract.

As the thermosphere shrinks, the air becomes thinner, decreasing the natural drag that typically slows down aging satellites and space debris, allowing them to re-enter and burn up.

With weaker drag, inactive satellites and debris will remain in orbit for extended periods, heightening the risk of collisions and increasing congestion in low Earth orbit.

Researchers predict that if emissions continue to rise, the carrying capacity of critical orbital zones could decline by
50%-66% by 2100.

The study underscores the importance of reducing emissions and carefully managing satellite deployments to mitigate long-term overcrowding in space.